Real Estate and Inflation
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Inflation in simpler terms is the rate of increase in prices over a given time. It remains elevated while the cost of living stays high. Because inflation reflects the rise of prices or the fall in the value of money, it’s important to stay updated as your advocates so that we can remain as knowledgeable as possible especially during times of uncertainty in the market.
Experts predict It will be some time before inflation is back to target rates. The outlook for the global economy remains subdued, with below-average growth is expected this year and next.
According to Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
“In Australia, CPI inflation over the year to the December quarter was 7.8 per cent, the highest since 1990. In underlying terms, inflation was 6.9 percent, which was higher than expected. Global factors explain much of this high inflation, but strong domestic demand is adding to the inflationary pressures in a number of areas of the economy.
Inflation is expected to decline this year due to both global factors and slower growth in domestic demand. The central forecast is for CPI inflation to decline to 4¾ percent this year and to around 3 percent by mid-2025. Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and it is important that this remains the case.
The Australian economy grew strongly over 2022. The central forecast is little changed from three months ago, with GDP growth expected to slow to around 1 1⁄2 per cent over 2023 and 2024. The recovery in spending on services following the lifting of COVID restrictions has largely run its course and the tighter financial conditions will constrain spending more broadly.
The Board recognises that monetary policy operates with a lag and that the full effect of the cumulative increase in interest rates is yet to be felt in mortgage payments. There is uncertainty around the timing and extent of the expected slowdown in household spending. Some households have substantial savings buffers, but others are experiencing a painful squeeze on their budgets due to higher interest rates and the increase in the cost of living. Household balance sheets are also being affected by the decline in housing prices. Another source of uncertainty is how the global economy responds to the large and rapid increase in interest rates around the world. These uncertainties mean that there are a range of potential scenarios for the Australian economy.
The Board’s priority is to return inflation to target. High inflation makes life difficult for people and damages the functioning of the economy. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be very costly to reduce later. The Board is seeking to return inflation to the 2–3 per cent range while keeping the economy on an even keel, but the path to achieving a soft landing remains a narrow one.
The Board expects that further increases in interest rates will be needed over the months ahead to ensure that inflation returns to target and that this period of high inflation is only temporary. In assessing how much further interest rates need to increase, the Board will be paying close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that.”
Speak to us today at BREA for the most up to date information about the real estate market. We are your trusted advisors with you every step of the way.
